06/09/2005 6:00:33 pm
Chancellor Merkel in 12 Days? As the German election closes in, the opposition has a firm grip on the public opinion. According to the latest polls, the CDU/CSU now have 43 % whereas the SPD only have 31 %. The reactionary left under Lafontaine have 9 %, FDP 7 % and the Greens 7 %. Since Schröder said clearly in the TV debate this Sunday that he would never ever co-operate with the extremists of Lafontaine, it seems sure enough that he only has 12 days left as Chancellor. To some extent, he is in that way similar to the Swedish PM Göran Persson, who seems to have mentally retired already.

The situation in the German public opinion is despite the fact that the German economy is actually gaining strength. The reforms of Agenda 2010 by Schröder have probably added to that. Germany is again the world?s largest exporter, for example. But of course, his reforms have only scratched the surface, much more needs to be done. The situation concerning unemployment and growth is very bad indeed. And more radical market-oriented reform actually seems to be what most Germans want now.

Perhaps one good sign of that is the debate on flat tax. Mr Kirchhof, Merkel?s candidate for Finance Minister, proposed a flat tax at 25 % a few years ago. The SPD did what they could to portray this as horrible. Then, an opinion poll showed 48 % supporting this very radical idea and 39 % opposing it. Thus, the economic agenda of the CDU/CSU, which is a bit cautious but still more reformist than the SPD, surely has a good potential to get more radical. Germany is a country where politicians compete to reform more, not less. That gives ground for optimism.