02/07/2005 10:46:29 am
Chancellor Ms Merkel? Yesterday, Gerhard Schröder lost the vote of confidence in the German Parliament by a vast margin: he got only 151 votes and 301 were needed to win. Now we will see whether Bundespresident Köhler will call an extra election in September. It is likely indeed. And the CDU leader Angela Merkel seems highly likely to become the first female chancellor.

Schröder loses the support of more traditional Social Democrats because of his economic reforms. Thus, he has tried to regain their confidence by using a disgraceful anti-US and anti-capitalist rhetoric. This is probably mostly confusing for the voters; if he says one thing and does another, what should they believe? He knows that the European Social Model is the cause of the problems and the reforms are about leaving it. That is what he should say.

Merkel will also have problems trying to do necessary reforms, such as cutting taxes and welfare contributions, since the voters have been told for decades that this is the best Model in the world. But she does not have a traditional Social Democrat base among the voters, so the opportunities to have a consistent message are better.
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