28/04/2005 12:31:08 pm
The French Drama. The polls continue to suggest that the French voters will say "non" to the proposed constitutional Treaty on May 29th. There are parts of this proposal which are clearly negative; notably the fact that it doesn?t set the limit for EU public power well enough. Unfortunately, this is not what the referendum is about. The French yes-side, which some Swedish libertarian commentators like to believe in, say that the proposal will give us a more French and social Europe. The French no-side says that the proposal is the ultimate victory for a neo-liberal (British) kind of Europe. Of course neither side is right, the proposal is a compromise. All this confuses people, nobody will know who is right. Thus, the debate takes other directions. One such direction is that a "non" is an anti-establishment vote, it is a vote on Chirac. If there ever was such a vote, I would argue strongly for a no to Chirac, but it is not what this one is about. Another part of the no-argument is that a yes would be the final yes to Turkey in the EU. That has some truth to it, indirectly. Every analyst believe that a French no would, at least, slow down enlargement. Thus, the no-side tries to stir up anti-turkish sentiments. There is a risk that a yes in France would be seen as support for an ever more big and bureaucratic EU. But the risk that a no-vote would be seen as a no to a market-oriented Europe is far greater. After a no-vote, we can probably only dream about ever having a single European market for services, for example. Thus, the referendum is about many other things than the actual proposal, and will affect many more than the French voters.