08/09/2008 7:15:51 am
Climate Change and Biotechnology. Climate here in Tokyo is quite tropical, though from what I have read, 2008 will be one of the coldest years in a long time globally. Not that this information is likely to affect the views of the believers of quick and far-reaching climate change, of course.

Climate change was also the topic of the first session today at Mont Pelerin Society, with Czech President Vaclav Klaus as the key note speaker. He has written the book Blue Planet in Green Shackles, where he is critical to the one-sidedness and hysteria of the climate change debate.

Professor Kevin M Murphy of the University fo Chicago spoke after him. He made a very interesting point about models. All predictions about climate change is based on models with assumptions. The result depends on which assumptions you choose. If you switch one main assumption of the famous Stern Review, the feared change is basically gone.

Perhaps even more importantly, the role of increased prosperity must be taken into account. Even the Stern Review believes that the average person will be ten times wealthier in 200 years. Investments to change climate in 100 years are therefore cheaper if we wait - and invest more to increase wealth today.

I exchanged a few words with President Klaus before the next session. He is a brave man, speaking up for freedom even when he is the only one to do it. The next session concerned why we should not restrict the development of biotechnology. Some conservative voices argue that we should, for ethical reasons. But that would decrease our possible choices, including choices to improve our health.