27/03/2007 3:24:11 pm
French Impact. I think that the Presidential elections in France, with the first round on March 22nd and the second on May 7th, will have a great impact on the prospects for economic reforms in Europe. Will the winner, whoever it is, say that the current good business cycle proves that no reform is needed? Or will he or she say that these good times provide an opportunity to do reforms to improve in the long run?

The frontrunner, Nicolas Sarkozy, just left his position as Interior Minister. He is something of a riddle, sometimes saying all the right things about embracing globalisation and reform, sometimes attacking capitalists and demanding new taxes. He is still in a narrowing lead over Socialist Ségolène Royal, but it is a three-horse race with Francois Bayrou not too far behind. For once, the magnitude of the French impact is likely to match their demand...

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