13/06/2006 3:32:28 pm
The Start of A Long And Winding Road. Yesterday, the European Council decided that the accession negotiations with Croatia and Turkey will be initiated. The EU will also start negotiating a stabilisation and accession agreement with Albania - where quite a few reforms have taken place in recent years.

Cyprus played a high game to the end by threatening to use their veto against Turkey. (All EU Member States have to take a unanimous decision on enlargements of the Union.) And indeed the issue of Cyprus remains one of the toughest obstacles to Turkey?s EU membership. Reunification of the two Cypriot societies would be the best solution, and indeed the Turkish Cypriots voted for it in 2004, but the Greek Cypriots voted against.

The negotiations with Croatia will be much quicker than those with Turkey. Croatia is the most likely next EU member in a few years time. Nothing can be said for sure about the timetable for Turkish entry. The negotiations will take a long time and then there is politics. Probably, several of today?s EU members will have referedums on Turkey. And if there is a majority for no in a single one, and that country?s government follows that decision, there will be great difficulties.

There are many obstacles. This is of course significantly enhanced by the current fatigue in the EU. The direction of the Union is, to be modest, non-existent right now. But nevertheless, Turkey joining the EU is the single most important enlargement the EU is likely to ever face.

Read the Press Release from the Council - >