31/10/2006 2:28:26 pm
Why Immigration Doesn′t Save Big Government. The defenders of the current order - the so-called social model with big government - acknowledge that it is not sustainable to have an increasing number of people being supported by a decreasing amount of working people. So they say that we have to have much more immgrants. Apparently, they think it is right for lots of people to force other people to support them - we just need more people to send the bill to.

Regardless what you think about that aspect, it is a fact that immgration will not solve the issue. For one thing, services will continue to get relatively more expensive, which means that if we want to keep paying for welfare services by taxes, they will have to rise. And taxes instead have to decrease in this globalised world. But not even the main issue addressed; i e the shares of the population that support and are supported, will be solved.

Below is a diagram that shows the development of the population of working age in Germany, from the German IFO Institute. It shows that the number of people of working age in Germany will decrease from today′s 42 million to 31 million by 2050 - even with a net immigration of 100 000 a year. That is 4 million immigrants. And with an immigration of 300 000 a year, the working age population will be 37 million in 2050. That is despite 12 million immigrants.

I am all for immigration, for a number of reasons. But it will not save the current system. Why? Because immigrants sooner or later get old too. It is the system itself that is unsustainable. Government should not force us to stop working at a certain age and should let us pay for pensions and health care privately. Then, there would be no problems of this kind at all.